MIT prof: Housing demand about to take off
William C. Wheaton, professor of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, argues that the housing market is due for improvement, calling home construction, “a sleeping giant that is about to wake up.”
Wheaton believes because there has been so little construction that demand exceeds the level of building and it will soon absorb excess inventory.
“Housing construction will not only rise, but it will stay high for a while, which didn’t happen in previous recoveries,” Wheaton predicts.
Source: Fortune, Nin-Hai Tseng (09/17/2010)
© Copyright 2010 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688
Friday, September 24, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Rent or Own; What are the advantages to home ownership?
I found this article online at www.HomeKeys.com about the advantages to homeownership as opposed to renting, so I thought I would share it with you today...
7 Reasons to Own Your Home!
1. Tax breaks. The U.S. Tax Code lets you deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage, your property taxes, as well as some of the costs involved in buying your home.
2. Appreciation. Real estate has long-term, stable growth in value. While year-to-year fluctuations are normal, median existing-home sale prices have increased on average 6.5 percent each year from 1972 through 2005, and increased 88.5 percent over the last 10 years, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. In addition, the number of U.S. households is expected to rise 15 percent over the next decade, creating continued high demand for housing.
3. Equity. Money paid for rent is money that you’ll never see again, but mortgage payments let you build equity ownership interest in your home.
4. Savings. Building equity in your home is a ready-made savings plan. And when you sell, you can generally take up to $250,000 ($500,000 for a married couple) as gain without owing any federal income tax.
5. Predictability. Unlike rent, your fixed-mortgage payments don’t rise over the years so your housing costs may actually decline as you own the home longer. However, keep in mind that property taxes and insurance costs will increase.
6. Freedom. The home is yours. You can decorate any way you want and benefit from your investment for as long as you own the home.
7. Stability. Remaining in one neighborhood for several years gives you a chance to participate in community activities, lets you and your family establish lasting friendships, and offers your children the benefit of educational continuity.
Online resources: www.homekeys.com
7 Reasons to Own Your Home!
1. Tax breaks. The U.S. Tax Code lets you deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage, your property taxes, as well as some of the costs involved in buying your home.
2. Appreciation. Real estate has long-term, stable growth in value. While year-to-year fluctuations are normal, median existing-home sale prices have increased on average 6.5 percent each year from 1972 through 2005, and increased 88.5 percent over the last 10 years, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. In addition, the number of U.S. households is expected to rise 15 percent over the next decade, creating continued high demand for housing.
3. Equity. Money paid for rent is money that you’ll never see again, but mortgage payments let you build equity ownership interest in your home.
4. Savings. Building equity in your home is a ready-made savings plan. And when you sell, you can generally take up to $250,000 ($500,000 for a married couple) as gain without owing any federal income tax.
5. Predictability. Unlike rent, your fixed-mortgage payments don’t rise over the years so your housing costs may actually decline as you own the home longer. However, keep in mind that property taxes and insurance costs will increase.
6. Freedom. The home is yours. You can decorate any way you want and benefit from your investment for as long as you own the home.
7. Stability. Remaining in one neighborhood for several years gives you a chance to participate in community activities, lets you and your family establish lasting friendships, and offers your children the benefit of educational continuity.
Online resources: www.homekeys.com
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Luxury Home Purchases Soar
Hi again, everyone! Well, the news is out that we are supposedly out of the "Recession"- the worst one since the Great Depression! I don't know about you, but it sure doesn't feel like it- at least not yet. Yesterday I included a blog on the potential flooding of the market with bank owned properties or foreclosures. If you read yesterday's blog you would know that this release of the so-called shadow inventory that we have been worrying about for at least a year has never happended. Today I received this artical regarding the Luxury Homes Sales that I think is pertinent so I thought I would include in today's information.
Luxury Home Purchases Soar:
The real estate market has been going through some challenging times this year. The National Realtors Association’s (NAR) last Existing Homes Sales Report showed that sales were down 25.5% from the same time last year. Media headlines screamed that the housing market was screeching to a halt the following day.
There is a segment of the market that is actually flourishing however: luxury homes.
According to NAR’s 2Q Report on Home Sales Statistics, every price ban under $1 million showed a decrease. Here are the numbers:
§ Homes less than $100,000: sales down 17.1%
§ Homes $100 -$250,000: sales down 35.3%
§ Homes $250 – $500,000: sales down 27.9%
§ Homes $500 – $750,000: sales down 12.8%
§ Homes $750,000 – $1 million: sales down 6.7%
At the same time, the sales of homes over a million dollars are UP 6.1%. Many people were shocked that the upper-end market is beginning to recover. It seems that this trend will continue as we move forward.
Unity Marketing, a market research firm specializing in the luxury consumer, just completed their study, Home Is Where the Style Is, which showed that the luxury home buyer has plans to re-enter the market in a big way. When asked if they plan to purchase a home in the next twelve months:
§ 11% responded that they would build a new primary residence (up from 3% in 2008)
§ 11% responded they would buy a new primary residence (up from 6% in 2008) and
§ 11% responded they would buy a second/vacation home (up from 2% in 2008)
Why this sudden resurgence in upper-end purchases?
We think there are three major reasons:
1. The affluent were less impacted by the economy.
An article in the Wall Street Journal reported the number of millionaires is soaring:
“… the number of American households with investible assets of $1 million or more rose 8% in the 12 months ended in June … There now are 5.55 million U.S. households with investible assets of $1 million or more.”
2. The wealthy understand investment cycles.
There is no doubt that the wealthy will have a better feel as to when the market will return. They are more accustomed to the up/down movements in the cycle of any investment. They are seeing value in today’s real estate and acting on what they perceive as an opportunity.
2. Mortgage rates for luxury properties are at historic lows.
Jumbo interest rates have fallen a full percentage point in the last year (from approximately 6% to 5%). The difference in a $1,000,000 mortgage payment from last year to now is $3,216.40/month. The annual savings of over $38,000 may be too good to pass up.
Bottom Line
With property choice almost unlimited, values at pre-bubble prices and interest rates at historic lows, it might make sense to buy the home or vacation spot your family always dreamed of. It appears the wealthy are doing just that.
Luxury Home Purchases Soar:
The real estate market has been going through some challenging times this year. The National Realtors Association’s (NAR) last Existing Homes Sales Report showed that sales were down 25.5% from the same time last year. Media headlines screamed that the housing market was screeching to a halt the following day.
There is a segment of the market that is actually flourishing however: luxury homes.
According to NAR’s 2Q Report on Home Sales Statistics, every price ban under $1 million showed a decrease. Here are the numbers:
§ Homes less than $100,000: sales down 17.1%
§ Homes $100 -$250,000: sales down 35.3%
§ Homes $250 – $500,000: sales down 27.9%
§ Homes $500 – $750,000: sales down 12.8%
§ Homes $750,000 – $1 million: sales down 6.7%
At the same time, the sales of homes over a million dollars are UP 6.1%. Many people were shocked that the upper-end market is beginning to recover. It seems that this trend will continue as we move forward.
Unity Marketing, a market research firm specializing in the luxury consumer, just completed their study, Home Is Where the Style Is, which showed that the luxury home buyer has plans to re-enter the market in a big way. When asked if they plan to purchase a home in the next twelve months:
§ 11% responded that they would build a new primary residence (up from 3% in 2008)
§ 11% responded they would buy a new primary residence (up from 6% in 2008) and
§ 11% responded they would buy a second/vacation home (up from 2% in 2008)
Why this sudden resurgence in upper-end purchases?
We think there are three major reasons:
1. The affluent were less impacted by the economy.
An article in the Wall Street Journal reported the number of millionaires is soaring:
“… the number of American households with investible assets of $1 million or more rose 8% in the 12 months ended in June … There now are 5.55 million U.S. households with investible assets of $1 million or more.”
2. The wealthy understand investment cycles.
There is no doubt that the wealthy will have a better feel as to when the market will return. They are more accustomed to the up/down movements in the cycle of any investment. They are seeing value in today’s real estate and acting on what they perceive as an opportunity.
2. Mortgage rates for luxury properties are at historic lows.
Jumbo interest rates have fallen a full percentage point in the last year (from approximately 6% to 5%). The difference in a $1,000,000 mortgage payment from last year to now is $3,216.40/month. The annual savings of over $38,000 may be too good to pass up.
Bottom Line
With property choice almost unlimited, values at pre-bubble prices and interest rates at historic lows, it might make sense to buy the home or vacation spot your family always dreamed of. It appears the wealthy are doing just that.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Bank Foreclosures- what ever happened to the shadow inventory?
Hi Everyone, For over a year now, realtors have been waiting and worrying about the release of a huge amount of foreclosed properties into the market. Many realtors, sellers, and buyers have feared there were going to be so many that it would hurt the already depressed prices. Where is this shadow inventory? Here is a report that tells a little about what has happened with all of these bank owned properties...
WASHINGTON – Sept. 20, 2010 – For the last year, the real estate industry has been talking about shadow inventory and the coming flood of distressed properties. Where are they?
Here’s what’s happening, according to a recent paper by Alan Mallach, a senior fellow the Brookings Institution:
• Some delinquencies have been resolved through loan modifications or people working out the problems on their own.
• Banks are getting better at managing short sales.
• Investors are aggressively buying up properties, sometimes in bulk, directly from the banks or at courthouse auctions so they don’t hit the market.
The likeliest outcome, Mallach predicts, is a steady flow of foreclosures over a long timeframe that will prevent another crash in home prices – but it will probably lead to low or no appreciation in home prices for a while.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiaros (09/16/2010)
© Copyright 2010 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688
WASHINGTON – Sept. 20, 2010 – For the last year, the real estate industry has been talking about shadow inventory and the coming flood of distressed properties. Where are they?
Here’s what’s happening, according to a recent paper by Alan Mallach, a senior fellow the Brookings Institution:
• Some delinquencies have been resolved through loan modifications or people working out the problems on their own.
• Banks are getting better at managing short sales.
• Investors are aggressively buying up properties, sometimes in bulk, directly from the banks or at courthouse auctions so they don’t hit the market.
The likeliest outcome, Mallach predicts, is a steady flow of foreclosures over a long timeframe that will prevent another crash in home prices – but it will probably lead to low or no appreciation in home prices for a while.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiaros (09/16/2010)
© Copyright 2010 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Very Low Risk for BP Oil Spill to affect the Keys!
News and Information From the Monroe County Tourist Development Council
Oil Response Chief: Risk Now ‘Very, Very Low’ for Oil to Travel to Keys Via Loop Current;
Risk ‘Will Go to Zero Once Well is Killed’
The head of the U.S. Government's response effort to mitigate the Transocean/BP oil spill said that with the oil leak capped there is now little chance of oil remnants reaching the Florida Keys and the South Florida mainland.
And when the well is permanently sealed there will no longer be any danger of oil impacts to the region, said retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen during a news briefing in New Orleans Thursday.
Allen responded to South Florida “Sun Sentinel” reporter David Fleshler’s questions regarding future threats to the Keys and South Florida:
“Once the well is killed we will have secured the source of oil in relation to the (Transocean/BP) Macando well,” Allen said. “For the past several months there has been an eddy (Eddy Franklin) that has broken off from the Loop Current between the wellhead and where the current comes north and turns towards the Straits of Florida.
“So (that) eddy has created a hydraulic barrier between the wellhead and the Loop Current, and the chances that oil will become entrained in the Loop Current are very, very low and will go to zero as we continue to control the leakage at the well with the cap and ultimately kill it,” he said.
Allen said that even with all the oil that gushed between April 20 and July 15, he does not expect significant oil remnants to reach the Keys or South Florida.
“The recent storm, tropical depression Bonnie, drove most of the oil to the northwest,” he said. “This is all moving in the opposite direction where oil would need to be to enter the Loop Current.”
Allen’s comments are being carried in a Quicktime video file on the Florida Keys website at http://www.fla-keys.com/news/news.cfm?sid=7845 or via links off the website’s home page at http://www.fla-keys.com.
###
Spill-related websites, primarily focusing on affected areas, include:
http://www.restorethegulf.gov • http://www.noaa.gov
TDC website with spill-related information for Keys visitors: http://www.fla-keys.com/oilspill
Oil Response Chief: Risk Now ‘Very, Very Low’ for Oil to Travel to Keys Via Loop Current;
Risk ‘Will Go to Zero Once Well is Killed’
The head of the U.S. Government's response effort to mitigate the Transocean/BP oil spill said that with the oil leak capped there is now little chance of oil remnants reaching the Florida Keys and the South Florida mainland.
And when the well is permanently sealed there will no longer be any danger of oil impacts to the region, said retired U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen during a news briefing in New Orleans Thursday.
Allen responded to South Florida “Sun Sentinel” reporter David Fleshler’s questions regarding future threats to the Keys and South Florida:
“Once the well is killed we will have secured the source of oil in relation to the (Transocean/BP) Macando well,” Allen said. “For the past several months there has been an eddy (Eddy Franklin) that has broken off from the Loop Current between the wellhead and where the current comes north and turns towards the Straits of Florida.
“So (that) eddy has created a hydraulic barrier between the wellhead and the Loop Current, and the chances that oil will become entrained in the Loop Current are very, very low and will go to zero as we continue to control the leakage at the well with the cap and ultimately kill it,” he said.
Allen said that even with all the oil that gushed between April 20 and July 15, he does not expect significant oil remnants to reach the Keys or South Florida.
“The recent storm, tropical depression Bonnie, drove most of the oil to the northwest,” he said. “This is all moving in the opposite direction where oil would need to be to enter the Loop Current.”
Allen’s comments are being carried in a Quicktime video file on the Florida Keys website at http://www.fla-keys.com/news/news.cfm?sid=7845 or via links off the website’s home page at http://www.fla-keys.com.
###
Spill-related websites, primarily focusing on affected areas, include:
http://www.restorethegulf.gov • http://www.noaa.gov
TDC website with spill-related information for Keys visitors: http://www.fla-keys.com/oilspill
Options for Homeowners on Mortgage Help- Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae unveils consumer website for borrowers
WASHINGTON – Aug. 3, 2010 – Mortgage company Fannie Mae is introducing a website to help consumers who are struggling to avoid foreclosure learn about ways to get help.
The government-controlled company on Tuesday launched http://www.knowyouroptions.com. It is designed to provide easy-to-understand definitions of mortgage industry terms and online calculators that help consumers determine whether they can qualify for a refinanced mortgage or a loan modification.
The site also describes options such as a short sale, in which the lender agrees to accept less than the total mortgage amount.
Fannie Mae executives say navigating the default and foreclosure process is often stressful and confusing for borrowers.
“We worry about the risks that borrowers will just give up and go to foreclosure,” said Jeff Hayward, a Fannie Mae senior vice president. “We don’t think that’s the right thing.”
Both Washington-based Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac have been upended by defaults and foreclosures as the housing bust has dragged on. The two companies have needed $145 billion to stay afloat since they were seized by the government in September 2008.
Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
WASHINGTON – Aug. 3, 2010 – Mortgage company Fannie Mae is introducing a website to help consumers who are struggling to avoid foreclosure learn about ways to get help.
The government-controlled company on Tuesday launched http://www.knowyouroptions.com. It is designed to provide easy-to-understand definitions of mortgage industry terms and online calculators that help consumers determine whether they can qualify for a refinanced mortgage or a loan modification.
The site also describes options such as a short sale, in which the lender agrees to accept less than the total mortgage amount.
Fannie Mae executives say navigating the default and foreclosure process is often stressful and confusing for borrowers.
“We worry about the risks that borrowers will just give up and go to foreclosure,” said Jeff Hayward, a Fannie Mae senior vice president. “We don’t think that’s the right thing.”
Both Washington-based Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac have been upended by defaults and foreclosures as the housing bust has dragged on. The two companies have needed $145 billion to stay afloat since they were seized by the government in September 2008.
Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Friday, May 14, 2010
The Oil Spill and The Florida Keys
KEYS TOURISM ADVISORY 9 May 13, 2010 • 1:15 PM EDT
News and Information From the Monroe County Tourist Development Council
Revised Q&A Regarding the Florida Keys and the Gulf Oil Spill
In light of new information regarding the Transocean/BP (British Petroleum) oil spill and its relationship to the Florida Keys, the Monroe County Tourist Development Council has updated the Question and Answer document originally transmitted May 4. This should be helpful in the event your staff must field questions from current or potential visitors. It is also published on the Florida Keys website in a special oil spill-related section. Since May 3, that section has received close to 20,000 views, so it is obvious travel consumers are seeking information related to the issue.
I heard that the Keys are in imminent danger of being affected by the oil spill.
The Keys currently are not being threatened by the oil spill and currently the spill is 475 miles away from the Keys. The oil from the spill is positioned in the northern Gulf of Mexico, away from the Loop Current, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) trajectory analysis. If oil got into the Loop Current, it would require 10 to 14 days for it to migrate into the Keys region. Even then, it is unclear whether the oil would actually impact Keys regions or bypass the area and remain either in the Loop Current or the Gulf Stream (see explanation of Loop Current below).
What is the Loop Current?
The Gulf Loop Current is a clockwise current that carries water from the Yucatan Channel north into the Gulf of Mexico, then back down south off the Florida west coast, past the Dry Tortugas and into the Gulf Stream. In this incident the current plays a crucial role because of concerns that if oil gets into the Loop Current, it could be swept to the south, possibly into or around the Keys and possibly carried by the Gulf Stream to other areas of Florida and the U.S. East Coast.
How can oil get into the Loop Current?
It’s based primarily on wind direction in the northern Gulf of Mexico. A strong wind from the north could push oil toward the Loop Current. Winds from the southern half of the compass help to keep oil away from the Loop Current.
I understand that if oil gets into the Loop Current it will definitely hit the Keys and the impacts will be devastating.
NOAA is still studying potential impacts, but more information is coming to light that the kind of impacts the Keys might experience would likely be different than what is transpiring in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Most oil spill experts say any oil carried by the Loop Current would be more dispersed and “weathered” by the time it gets to the Keys, which is some 475 miles from the spill site. That means it would be highly unlikely that large “rivers” of oil would impact the Keys. More likely, experts said, the impacts would be in the form of tar balls. While arrival of oil in any form is unacceptable, it seems those impacts would be less harmful to the environment and likely easier to mitigate. It is also possible that one area of the Keys could be affected and others not, or that oil could remain in the Loop Current and Gulf Stream and completely miss the Keys.
Can you guarantee me the oil will not make its way into the Keys during my vacation?
Nobody can make a long-term guarantee that residue from the Gulf Coast oil spill will or will not
be in the Keys. But what is known is that NOAA forecasts oil slick trajectory movements within a 72- hour timeframe. As long as the oil is north of the Loop Current, it is not likely to affect the Keys. If it does get into the Loop Current, new studies now show it will take about 10 to 14 days for any oil impacts to migrate down to the Dry Tortugas region (situated about 70 miles west of Key West) before possibly exiting into the Gulf Stream. When making reservations for accommodations and water-related activities, it may be prudent to discuss in advance any cancellation and refund policies in the event oil residues impact the immediate area of activity.
I hear authorities have shut down fishing in the Keys.
That is not true. Earlier, NOAA issued an order restricting fishing in federal waters affected by the oil spill. That area is from Louisiana state waters at the mouth of the Mississippi River to waters off Florida’s Pensacola Bay. No other areas of Florida, including the Keys, are under the order at this time. It also means that Keys-caught seafood has not been affected and is safe to consume.
Is it safe to dive, swim and participate in other water sports in the Keys?
There are no advisories in the Keys currently in effect due to the Gulf oil spill. The Monroe County Health Department is monitoring the situation and would issue an advisory in the event of any healthrelated risk.
I’m apprehensive about traveling to the Keys because I don’t want to lose money if oil comes and ruins my vacation.
Each property has its own cancellation policy. It is prudent to check with the hotel as well as any other travel-related operator in advance to determine cancellation policies and if management will offer refunds or credits in the event oil adversely affects Keys waters.
I hear much of Florida is under a state of emergency.
Nineteen of the state’s 67 counties are under a state of emergency, even though no impacts have been seen in Florida as of Thursday, May 13. The Keys are in Monroe County and a state of emergency has not been declared for Monroe. Many times a state of emergency is designated as a standard
prerequisite to qualify an area for emergency federal funds, before a disaster actually impacts the region.
What happens if oil does affect the Keys?
The U.S. Coast Guard is the lead government agency responsible for oversight of any necessary
cleanup and remediation activities. The Coast Guard works in conjunction with other local, state and federal authorities to enact a 725-page area contingency plan that includes oil spill response actions. Some of the other agencies include NOAA’s Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Florida’s Department of Environmental Protection, Monroe County Emergency Management and other public agencies, as well as area individuals and organizations. All efforts possible would be made to protect the marine environment in the Keys. The agencies have a unified plan in place to address oil spills caused by vessel groundings and have conducted several drills to prepare for such an incident. Since the BP spill began, agencies have met several times to adapt the plan for this unique incident. BP must pay for all response activities.
When will this be over?
Officials don’t know for sure. The outcome and timing depend on when the actual leaks at the well site can be plugged or effectively contained and how effective current mitigation efforts are work in containing the oil already in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Where can I get more information on the oil spill?
The Keys tourism council is posting information — including official NOAA oil slick trajectory maps — on its website at www.fla-keys.com as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
http://twitter.com/thefloridakeys • http://www.facebook.com/floridakeysandkeywest
Spill-related websites, primarily focusing on affected areas, include:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com • http://www.noaa.gov
News and Information From the Monroe County Tourist Development Council
Revised Q&A Regarding the Florida Keys and the Gulf Oil Spill
In light of new information regarding the Transocean/BP (British Petroleum) oil spill and its relationship to the Florida Keys, the Monroe County Tourist Development Council has updated the Question and Answer document originally transmitted May 4. This should be helpful in the event your staff must field questions from current or potential visitors. It is also published on the Florida Keys website in a special oil spill-related section. Since May 3, that section has received close to 20,000 views, so it is obvious travel consumers are seeking information related to the issue.
I heard that the Keys are in imminent danger of being affected by the oil spill.
The Keys currently are not being threatened by the oil spill and currently the spill is 475 miles away from the Keys. The oil from the spill is positioned in the northern Gulf of Mexico, away from the Loop Current, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) trajectory analysis. If oil got into the Loop Current, it would require 10 to 14 days for it to migrate into the Keys region. Even then, it is unclear whether the oil would actually impact Keys regions or bypass the area and remain either in the Loop Current or the Gulf Stream (see explanation of Loop Current below).
What is the Loop Current?
The Gulf Loop Current is a clockwise current that carries water from the Yucatan Channel north into the Gulf of Mexico, then back down south off the Florida west coast, past the Dry Tortugas and into the Gulf Stream. In this incident the current plays a crucial role because of concerns that if oil gets into the Loop Current, it could be swept to the south, possibly into or around the Keys and possibly carried by the Gulf Stream to other areas of Florida and the U.S. East Coast.
How can oil get into the Loop Current?
It’s based primarily on wind direction in the northern Gulf of Mexico. A strong wind from the north could push oil toward the Loop Current. Winds from the southern half of the compass help to keep oil away from the Loop Current.
I understand that if oil gets into the Loop Current it will definitely hit the Keys and the impacts will be devastating.
NOAA is still studying potential impacts, but more information is coming to light that the kind of impacts the Keys might experience would likely be different than what is transpiring in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Most oil spill experts say any oil carried by the Loop Current would be more dispersed and “weathered” by the time it gets to the Keys, which is some 475 miles from the spill site. That means it would be highly unlikely that large “rivers” of oil would impact the Keys. More likely, experts said, the impacts would be in the form of tar balls. While arrival of oil in any form is unacceptable, it seems those impacts would be less harmful to the environment and likely easier to mitigate. It is also possible that one area of the Keys could be affected and others not, or that oil could remain in the Loop Current and Gulf Stream and completely miss the Keys.
Can you guarantee me the oil will not make its way into the Keys during my vacation?
Nobody can make a long-term guarantee that residue from the Gulf Coast oil spill will or will not
be in the Keys. But what is known is that NOAA forecasts oil slick trajectory movements within a 72- hour timeframe. As long as the oil is north of the Loop Current, it is not likely to affect the Keys. If it does get into the Loop Current, new studies now show it will take about 10 to 14 days for any oil impacts to migrate down to the Dry Tortugas region (situated about 70 miles west of Key West) before possibly exiting into the Gulf Stream. When making reservations for accommodations and water-related activities, it may be prudent to discuss in advance any cancellation and refund policies in the event oil residues impact the immediate area of activity.
I hear authorities have shut down fishing in the Keys.
That is not true. Earlier, NOAA issued an order restricting fishing in federal waters affected by the oil spill. That area is from Louisiana state waters at the mouth of the Mississippi River to waters off Florida’s Pensacola Bay. No other areas of Florida, including the Keys, are under the order at this time. It also means that Keys-caught seafood has not been affected and is safe to consume.
Is it safe to dive, swim and participate in other water sports in the Keys?
There are no advisories in the Keys currently in effect due to the Gulf oil spill. The Monroe County Health Department is monitoring the situation and would issue an advisory in the event of any healthrelated risk.
I’m apprehensive about traveling to the Keys because I don’t want to lose money if oil comes and ruins my vacation.
Each property has its own cancellation policy. It is prudent to check with the hotel as well as any other travel-related operator in advance to determine cancellation policies and if management will offer refunds or credits in the event oil adversely affects Keys waters.
I hear much of Florida is under a state of emergency.
Nineteen of the state’s 67 counties are under a state of emergency, even though no impacts have been seen in Florida as of Thursday, May 13. The Keys are in Monroe County and a state of emergency has not been declared for Monroe. Many times a state of emergency is designated as a standard
prerequisite to qualify an area for emergency federal funds, before a disaster actually impacts the region.
What happens if oil does affect the Keys?
The U.S. Coast Guard is the lead government agency responsible for oversight of any necessary
cleanup and remediation activities. The Coast Guard works in conjunction with other local, state and federal authorities to enact a 725-page area contingency plan that includes oil spill response actions. Some of the other agencies include NOAA’s Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Florida’s Department of Environmental Protection, Monroe County Emergency Management and other public agencies, as well as area individuals and organizations. All efforts possible would be made to protect the marine environment in the Keys. The agencies have a unified plan in place to address oil spills caused by vessel groundings and have conducted several drills to prepare for such an incident. Since the BP spill began, agencies have met several times to adapt the plan for this unique incident. BP must pay for all response activities.
When will this be over?
Officials don’t know for sure. The outcome and timing depend on when the actual leaks at the well site can be plugged or effectively contained and how effective current mitigation efforts are work in containing the oil already in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Where can I get more information on the oil spill?
The Keys tourism council is posting information — including official NOAA oil slick trajectory maps — on its website at www.fla-keys.com as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
http://twitter.com/thefloridakeys • http://www.facebook.com/floridakeysandkeywest
Spill-related websites, primarily focusing on affected areas, include:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com • http://www.noaa.gov
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